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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ browns week 13, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
8-3
30
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
8 mph
23
CLEBrowns
1-10
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
34°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
3
14
3
30
Browns
7
0
0
16
23

Spread

CLE logo
+13.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
477
372
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
8.1
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.40
+0.19
Passing Yards
386
257
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
25/45(56%)
Yards / Pass
14.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
+1.18
+0.25
Rushing Yards
91
115
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.56
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-1.37
-5.95
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-12.0

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-253
Home nfelo
1,300
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+18.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-287.3
Model Spread
+12.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.7
Value
Ptile
09/20
4.0
76
09/27
2.6
67
10/04
3.7
74
10/19
-0.7
46
10/25
7.0
89
11/01
0.5
54
11/08
1.7
61
11/15
5.4
84
11/22
2.7
67
11/29
7.6
91
B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.1
85
11/17
-4.1
21
11/23
-8.5
5
09/13
-3.0
31
09/20
-7.1
11
09/27
-5.2
19
11/16
-13.0
1
11/22
7.1
90
11/29
-2.9
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Chargers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28

EPA

EPA / Play
1
24
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
28
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
10
4
Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Browns logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21

EPA

EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
15
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
28
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-10
L
L
O
10/19
-11
L
L
O
10/25
30
W
W
P
11/01
8
W
L
U
11/08
1
W
W
U
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
29
W
W
U
11/29
29
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-31
L
L
U
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
W
O
10/25
-28
L
L
U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/22
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-9
L
W
U