LACChargers
4-4
24
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
10 mph
34
TBBuccaneers
4-4
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
14
7
0
3
24
Buccaneers
7
4
7
4
22
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
279
Total Plays
65
43
Yards / Play
6.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.25
Passing Yards
323
205
Comp/Att
29/37(78%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.58
Rushing Yards
103
74
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
67%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.45
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-5
Sack EPA
-2.17
-1.25
Penalties
1
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
+37.2
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
31
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
18
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
28
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
15
13
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
29
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
8
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U