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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ cardinals week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
5-5
25
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
24
ARICardinals
4-7
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
3
8
25
Cardinals
7
10
0
7
24

Spread

ARI logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
313
366
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.03
Passing Yards
248
185
Comp/Att
35/48(73%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.26
Rushing Yards
65
181
Rush Attempts
13
34
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.55
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-28
-6
Sack EPA
-8.39
-1.07
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-2.69
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model51.9%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+61.4
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.0
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
-13.3
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Value
Ptile
09/11
7.0
91
09/15
3.8
80
09/25
-0.9
46
10/02
5.6
87
10/09
1.9
68
10/17
-1.2
45
10/23
1.7
65
11/06
-0.3
50
11/13
-2.2
36
11/20
-1.4
43
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
01/17
-8.2
7
09/11
0.9
58
09/18
2.9
75
09/25
2.1
68
10/02
3.5
78
10/09
3.5
79
10/16
-2.1
36
10/20
1.3
61
10/30
2.9
75
11/06
1.6
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Chargers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
12
22
EPA / Rush
17
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
6
22
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Cardinals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Cardinals logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
23
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
7
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
15
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
7
27
Turnover EPA / Game
9
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
11
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
5
W
W
U
09/15
-3
L
W
U
09/25
-28
L
L
O
10/02
10
W
W
O
10/09
2
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
U
11/13
-6
L
W
U
11/20
-3
L
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
6
W
W
O
09/25
-8
L
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
U
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/16
-10
L
L
U
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
10
W
W
O
11/21
-28
L
L
O