LACChargers
-
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
78°F
10 mph
21
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
78°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
7
0
14
Chiefs
7
8
0
0
15
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
197
Total Plays
70
49
Yards / Play
5.6
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.19
Passing Yards
280
62
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
2.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.39
Rushing Yards
109
135
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
9
Passing 1st downs
14
4
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
27%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.89
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-6
Sack EPA
-2.56
-1.73
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
30
35
Penalty EPA
-3.37
-2.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+11.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.7
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.3
Market Regression
+25.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.3
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
14
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
20
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
6
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
16
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
7
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
4
14
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
7
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U