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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ chiefs week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
-
27
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
74°F
9 mph
33
KCChiefs
-
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
74°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
7
14
3
3
0
27
Chiefs
3
0
7
17
6
33

Spread

LAC logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
388
413
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
5.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
233
330
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
34/48(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.13
Rushing Yards
155
83
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.77
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-0.82
-6.06
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
46
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-4.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
10/25
3.6
76
11/01
7.1
91
11/09
0.3
52
11/22
-4.4
18
11/29
6.3
88
12/06
-7.7
5
12/13
-5.8
12
12/20
2.9
72
12/24
2.5
68
01/03
-1.3
41
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
11/15
0.6
54
11/22
0.5
54
11/29
5.5
85
12/06
1.3
60
12/13
-1.4
41
12/20
-0.5
48
12/27
1.1
57
01/03
-0.6
47
01/09
-0.3
49
01/16
2.8
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
27
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
28
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-8
L
L
O
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-30
L
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
16
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
U
01/03
-7
L
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
30
W
W
U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
O
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/20
20
W
W
O
12/27
4
W
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
30
W
W
U
01/16
-7
L
L
O