LACChargers
-
27
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
74°F
9 mph
33
KCChiefs
-
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
74°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
7
14
3
3
0
27
Chiefs
3
0
7
17
6
33
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
413
Total Plays
69
70
Yards / Play
5.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
233
330
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
34/48(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.13
Rushing Yards
155
83
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
26
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.77
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-10
-33
Sack EPA
-0.82
-6.06
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
30
46
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-4.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+52.8
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+1.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
27
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U