LACChargers
2-3
37
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
10 mph
7
KCChiefs
1-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
14
6
7
4
31
Chiefs
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
-5.5
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
403
203
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
6.1
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.51
Passing Yards
--
82
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
11/26(42%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.81
Rushing Yards
135
121
Rush Attempts
36
31
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
9
3
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.88
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-5.14
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
59
41
Penalty EPA
-2.53
-5.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,343
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+24.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-8.2
Final Difference
-128.1
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+24.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
30
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
1
18
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
23
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
26
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
22
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
23
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-1-5
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U