LACChargers
4-2
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
023
KCChiefs
3-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
3
9
8
0
20
Chiefs
10
3
0
7
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
341
Total Plays
72
67
Yards / Play
6.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
347
247
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.08
Rushing Yards
102
94
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-16.04
-12.96
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-4.64
-7.33
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
105
53
Penalty EPA
-11.83
-6.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+11.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
4
22
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20
EPA
EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
32
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U