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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ chiefs week 8, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-2
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
0
23
KCChiefs
3-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
3
9
8
0
20
Chiefs
10
3
0
7
3
23

Spread

KC logo
+3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
449
341
Total Plays
72
67
Yards / Play
6.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
347
247
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.08
Rushing Yards
102
94
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
17
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-16.04
-12.96
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-4.64
-7.33
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
105
53
Penalty EPA
-11.83
-6.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,597
Home Field
+11.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Value
Ptile
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
09/18
4.9
81
09/25
-4.2
23
10/02
3.8
76
10/09
-3.0
32
10/23
-3.9
25
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Value
Ptile
12/19
-4.3
21
12/26
9.2
96
01/02
-15.3
0
01/09
-12.5
1
09/11
-4.0
25
09/18
-8.7
4
09/25
0.8
58
10/02
0.8
59
10/09
6.6
89
10/23
-6.5
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26

EPA

EPA / Play
4
21
EPA / Pass
4
22
EPA / Rush
12
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
10
Rushing Yards / Game
15
20

EPA

EPA / Play
29
29
EPA / Pass
21
28
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
32
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/23
-6
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
14
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O
01/02
-21
L
L
U
01/09
-23
L
L
U
09/11
-34
L
L
O
09/18
-45
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
5
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
O
10/23
28
W
W
U