LACChargers
4-6
41
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
24°F
3 mph
38
KCChiefs
9-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
24°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
14
17
41
Chiefs
7
7
14
10
38
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
491
395
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
7.3
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.40
+0.35
Passing Yards
387
281
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.65
+0.23
Rushing Yards
104
114
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
26
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.63
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-13
Sack EPA
-1.22
-3.58
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
97
62
Penalty EPA
-9.27
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.6
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
7
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
10
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
12
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
28
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U