LACChargers
3-9
3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
61°F
14 mph
10
KCChiefs
7-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
61°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
3
0
3
Chiefs
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
+12
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
329
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
4.2
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.00
Passing Yards
236
179
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.16
Rushing Yards
44
150
Rush Attempts
18
25
Yards / Rush
2.4
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.46
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
0%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+3.31
-2.75
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-27
-12
Sack EPA
-6.99
-2.97
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
48
53
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-6.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market83.4%
Model83.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+21.6
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
+33.0
Final Difference
280.4
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
21
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
7
22
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
19
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
15
19
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U