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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ chiefs week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAC logo
LACChargers
9-4
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0
13
KCChiefs
6-7
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
6
0
16
Chiefs
7
6
0
0
13

Spread

LAC logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
295
239
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
4.8
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.05
Passing Yards
201
190
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.14
Rushing Yards
94
49
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.86
-4.45
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-5.51
-7.18
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
50
64
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+55.8
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
-20.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+15.9
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.5
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Value
Ptile
09/28
-5.0
17
10/05
-0.5
46
10/12
4.6
81
10/19
5.3
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.2
53
11/09
-3.8
24
11/16
-8.8
4
11/30
-3.6
26
12/08
-7.6
6
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
Value
Ptile
09/28
7.3
93
10/06
9.5
97
10/12
7.1
92
10/19
8.1
94
10/27
2.8
71
11/02
-6.9
8
11/16
0.4
54
11/23
-1.0
43
11/27
5.1
85
12/07
-6.7
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
17
6
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
10

EPA

EPA / Play
21
21
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
18
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
23
19
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
11
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
27
12
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9

EPA

EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
5
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
1
29
Turnover EPA / Game
29
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
12
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-17
L
L
U
10/12
2
W
L
O
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O
12/08
3
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
17
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/12
13
W
W
U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O
12/07
-10
L
L
U