LACChargers
9-6
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
31°F
7 mph
19
KCChiefs
8-7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
31°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
0
0
7
Chiefs
3
13
3
0
19
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
251
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.12
Passing Yards
249
140
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.28
Rushing Yards
112
111
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
18%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.80
--
Sacks
7
4
Sack Yards
-42
-17
Sack EPA
-14.39
-5.80
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
67
46
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-5.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Chargers+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-120.3
Home QB Adjustment
-124.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
28.4
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
W. Daniel
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-124.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
4
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U