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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ chiefs week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
9-6
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
31°F
7 mph
19
KCChiefs
8-7
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
31°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
0
0
7
Chiefs
3
13
3
0
19

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
361
251
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.12
Passing Yards
249
140
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.28
Rushing Yards
112
111
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
18%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.80
--
Sacks
7
4
Sack Yards
-42
-17
Sack EPA
-14.39
-5.80
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
67
46
Penalty EPA
-9.74
-5.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-120.3
Home QB Adjustment
-124.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
27.0
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Value
Ptile
10/12
5.8
84
10/19
-2.1
35
10/23
3.5
74
11/02
-11.3
2
11/16
-2.3
33
11/23
0.9
56
11/30
8.5
93
12/07
-5.4
18
12/14
-2.4
33
12/20
3.0
71
W. Daniel headshot

W. Daniel

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-124.3
Value
Ptile
12/29
3.6
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
19
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28

EPA

EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
27
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25

EPA

EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
12
21
EPA / Rush
4
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
16
Interceptions / Game
1
28
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
9
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/19
-3
L
L
U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/02
-37
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-9
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
3
W
W
U
10/26
27
W
W
U
11/02
14
W
W
U
11/09
4
W
W
U
11/16
4
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
O
11/30
-13
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
U
12/14
18
W
W
O
12/21
-8
L
L
U