LACChargers
5-5
36
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
014
INDColts
6-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
4
6
4
10
24
Colts
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
+2
Total
PUSH
50
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
303
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.38
Passing Yards
172
279
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.40
Rushing Yards
129
24
Rush Attempts
34
13
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
0%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
--
3
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-26.15
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-6
Sack EPA
-4.67
-1.46
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-4.14
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
9
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
1
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U