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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ colts week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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    Advanced stats for receivers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
5-5
36
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
14
INDColts
6-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
4
6
4
10
24
Colts
7
7
0
0
14

Spread

LAC logo
+2

Total

PUSH
50
P

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
301
303
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.38
Passing Yards
172
279
Comp/Att
19/23(83%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.40
Rushing Yards
129
24
Rush Attempts
34
13
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
0%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
--
3
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-26.15
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-6
Sack EPA
-4.67
-1.46
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-4.14
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
-13.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
2.9
69
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
0.3
51
10/03
4.8
81
10/10
8.5
94
10/17
-6.3
12
10/24
2.8
67
10/31
6.1
88
11/07
5.0
82
11/22
3.7
74
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
09/12
11.9
99
09/19
6.6
90
09/26
8.7
95
10/03
5.6
86
10/10
-2.2
34
10/17
5.6
85
11/01
2.0
61
11/07
-1.8
38
11/14
-2.7
31
11/21
8.3
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Colts Defense
Chargers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
27

EPA

EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
1
21
EPA / Rush
20
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Colts Offense vs Chargers Defense
Colts logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
9
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4

EPA

EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
13
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
11
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
7
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
1
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/19
25
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/03
31
W
W
O
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
U
10/31
8
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/22
21
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-10
L
L
O
09/19
24
W
W
O
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
10
W
W
U
10/17
3
W
P
O
11/01
13
W
W
U
11/07
-2
L
W
O
11/14
6
W
L
U
11/21
-3
L
W
O