LACChargers
4-3
24
TBD
FedExField
57°F
20 mph
30
WASCommanders
2-5
TBD
FedExField
57°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
8
0
10
0
18
Commanders
0
7
7
10
6
30
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
500
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
6.5
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.20
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.37
Rushing Yards
69
209
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
3
12
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.77
-6.42
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.51
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
63
65
Penalty EPA
-5.78
-1.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-34.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+28.4
Market Regression
+0.5
Final Difference
0.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
18
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U