LACChargers
4-6
28
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
06
DALCowboys
5-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
13
6
22
Cowboys
0
0
0
6
6
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
515
247
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
7.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.27
Passing Yards
--
168
Comp/Att
27/33(82%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.95
-0.56
Rushing Yards
81
79
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
64%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-16.53
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-3.72
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
56
60
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-11.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+65.3
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-84.0
Final Difference
4.8
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
5
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
24
8
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
29
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
27
22
Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
1
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
5
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U