LACChargers
9-3
20
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
017
DALCowboys
8-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
0
10
20
Cowboys
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
347
Total Plays
64
58
Yards / Play
5.3
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.12
Passing Yards
268
239
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.32
Rushing Yards
73
108
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
42%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
8
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.16
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-10
Sack EPA
-1.01
-1.74
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
24
68
Penalty EPA
-3.84
-7.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.3
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
3
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
1
17
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
3
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
8
RZ Efficiency
10
26
Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
7
19
EPA / Rush
9
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
3
20
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U