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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ cowboys week 16, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
10-4
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
17
DALCowboys
6-7
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
14
3
10
34
Cowboys
7
10
0
0
17

Spread

LAC logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
452
340
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
7.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
249
Comp/Att
23/29(79%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.82
+0.43
Rushing Yards
152
91
Rush Attempts
33
23
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
64%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.42
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-0.19
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
34
--
Penalty EPA
-4.69
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,541
Home Field
+60.3
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.9
Net QB Adjustment
+37.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-24.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-24.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
-0.5
46
10/12
4.6
81
10/19
5.3
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.2
53
11/09
-3.8
24
11/16
-8.8
4
11/30
-3.6
26
12/08
-7.6
6
12/14
-5.0
18
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
10/05
6.6
91
10/12
6.9
92
10/19
5.0
84
10/26
-4.3
22
11/03
-3.9
24
11/17
6.7
91
11/23
6.6
91
11/27
4.3
78
12/04
-2.1
36
12/14
0.3
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Chargers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
11
30
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
32
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
16
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
22
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Cowboys Offense vs Chargers Defense
Cowboys logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
2
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8

EPA

EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
15
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
25
29
Turnover EPA / Game
18
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
16
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-17
L
L
U
10/12
2
W
L
O
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O
12/08
3
W
W
U
12/14
3
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
15
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
22
W
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/14
-8
L
L
O