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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ dolphins week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-6
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph
29
MIADolphins
5-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
7
21
Dolphins
14
3
3
9
29

Spread

MIA logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
273
280
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.06
Passing Yards
174
--
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.31
Rushing Yards
99
111
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.36
-8.32
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.04
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-5.51
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model46.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-90.7
Home QB Adjustment
-62.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
-23.9
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
10/12
3.0
67
10/25
11.5
98
11/01
2.2
61
11/08
3.8
72
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-62.3
Value
Ptile
11/01
-4.0
19
11/08
1.8
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16

EPA

EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
31
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
23
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17

EPA

EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
18
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
16
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/25
10
W
W
O
11/01
-1
L
L
O
11/08
-5
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
09/13
-10
L
L
U
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/24
18
W
W
U
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/11
26
W
W
O
10/18
24
W
W
U
11/01
11
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
O