LACChargers
2-6
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph
29
MIADolphins
5-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
7
21
Dolphins
14
3
3
9
29
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
280
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
4.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.06
Passing Yards
174
--
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.31
Rushing Yards
99
111
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.36
-8.32
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.04
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-5.51
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model46.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-90.7
Home QB Adjustment
-62.3
Away QB Adjustment
+28.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
-22.9
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-62.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
23
5
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
31
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
18
Interceptions / Game
7
1
Fumbles / Game
8
3
Turnover EPA / Game
30
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
23
Yards / Game
23
10
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
18
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U