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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ dolphins week 11, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-5
16
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
12 mph
20
MIADolphins
4-5
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
3
3
16
Dolphins
3
7
7
3
20

Spread

MIA logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
435
343
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
6.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
281
239
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.04
Rushing Yards
154
104
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.24
-2.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-29
Sack EPA
-4.58
-3.94
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
76
15
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-2.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
-21.8
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Value
Ptile
12/30
-0.7
45
09/09
1.7
62
09/15
12.6
98
09/22
1.8
63
09/29
10.9
96
10/06
2.7
69
10/14
1.3
60
10/20
4.8
83
11/03
3.0
71
11/10
-1.7
41
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
12/30
-9.1
4
09/08
-3.0
32
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
09/30
-3.4
28
10/06
-3.2
29
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8
10/31
1.0
56
11/11
-1.0
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Chargers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
2
11
EPA / Rush
10
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Dolphins logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14

EPA

EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
28
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
11
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
3
W
L
O
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
P
U
09/29
9
W
W
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/14
10
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-28
L
L
U
09/08
13
W
W
U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/30
-21
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U
10/31
2
W
W
P
11/11
-3
L
L
O