LACChargers
4-5
16
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
12 mph
20
MIADolphins
4-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
81°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
3
3
16
Dolphins
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
435
343
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
6.9
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
281
239
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.04
Rushing Yards
154
104
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
5.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.24
-2.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-29
Sack EPA
-4.58
-3.94
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
76
15
Penalty EPA
-5.49
-2.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model52.8%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+2.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-28.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+22.1
Market Regression
-19.2
Final Difference
-19.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
16
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
2
11
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Dolphins Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
27
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
20
22
EPA / Rush
28
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
11
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U