LACChargers
3-3
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
12 mph
6
JAXJaguars
0-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
73°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
7
3
7
24
Jaguars
0
3
3
0
6
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
353
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
6.5
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.08
Passing Yards
276
275
Comp/Att
22/26(85%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
10.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.73
-0.22
Rushing Yards
158
78
Rush Attempts
40
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
18
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
58%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.03
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-9
-43
Sack EPA
-1.33
-10.05
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
61
45
Penalty EPA
-6.84
-5.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-144
Home nfelo
1,246
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.4
Away QB Adjustment
+25.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.7
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
27
EPA / Pass
2
31
EPA / Rush
10
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
30
RZ Efficiency
21
23
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
14
EPA
EPA / Play
31
30
EPA / Pass
32
22
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
28
Interceptions / Game
27
24
Fumbles / Game
4
19
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U