LACChargers
3-5
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
20
JAXJaguars
5-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
3
0
17
Jaguars
6
0
8
3
3
20
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
400
Total Plays
67
82
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
265
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.16
Rushing Yards
87
135
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.04
-5.78
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-4.11
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
77
106
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-9.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model62.7%
Spread Pick
Chargers+5.0
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+56.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-43.7
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.1
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
90.1
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
21
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
6
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U