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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ jaguars week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-5
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph
20
JAXJaguars
5-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
3
0
17
Jaguars
6
0
8
3
3
20

Spread

LAC logo
+5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
322
400
Total Plays
67
82
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
265
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
28/52(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.16
Rushing Yards
87
135
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
28%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.04
-5.78
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-4.11
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
77
106
Penalty EPA
-7.61
-9.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model62.6%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+43.1
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.2
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.5
Net QB Adjustment
+5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
89.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Value
Ptile
12/24
0.1
49
01/01
0.4
52
09/11
2.6
71
09/17
6.3
88
09/24
-8.9
5
10/01
3.3
76
10/08
0.5
55
10/15
2.1
67
10/22
-0.8
46
10/29
-3.5
28
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29
09/24
9.0
96
10/01
-4.6
21
10/08
-6.3
14
10/15
-3.2
30
10/22
3.9
80
11/05
4.6
83

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
13
3
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
16
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
21
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
27
3
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31

EPA

EPA / Play
9
10
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
6
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
5
RZ Efficiency
1
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
-10
L
L
O
09/11
-3
L
P
O
09/17
-2
L
L
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-2
L
L
O
10/08
5
W
W
O
10/15
1
W
W
U
10/22
21
W
W
U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O
09/24
37
W
W
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/08
21
W
W
U
10/15
-10
L
L
O
10/22
27
W
W
U
11/05
16
W
W
U