LACChargers
2-8
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph
25
JAXJaguars
4-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
21
3
7
31
Jaguars
6
3
3
13
25
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
420
Total Plays
71
70
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
290
318
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.02
Rushing Yards
79
102
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
19
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.56
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-2.71
-0.95
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
70
35
Penalty EPA
-5.14
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+94.3
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+32.9
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
114.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15
EPA
EPA / Play
18
18
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
30
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
18
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U