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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ jaguars week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-8
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph
25
JAXJaguars
4-6
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
75°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
21
3
7
31
Jaguars
6
3
3
13
25

Spread

LAC logo
+5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
369
420
Total Plays
71
70
Yards / Play
5.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.02
Passing Yards
290
318
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
30/49(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.02
Rushing Yards
79
102
Rush Attempts
26
19
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
19
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
80%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.56
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-11
Sack EPA
-2.71
-0.95
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
70
35
Penalty EPA
-5.14
-5.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,424
Home Field
+95.2
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+15.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
114.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Value
Ptile
09/13
6.0
87
09/20
-0.1
50
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
5.8
86
10/12
5.2
83
10/18
10.6
97
10/25
3.6
76
11/01
7.1
91
11/09
0.3
52
11/22
-4.4
18
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
09/27
-1.7
37
10/04
3.5
76
10/11
2.6
69
10/18
-0.0
50
10/25
-5.0
16
11/08
-1.1
43
11/15
-5.1
14
11/19
-2.6
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15

EPA

EPA / Play
18
18
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
31
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
16
26
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
31
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
27

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
30
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
13
Interceptions / Game
26
20
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
18
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
5
W
W
O
09/20
-5
L
L
U
09/27
-17
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/12
-4
L
L
U
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/25
-8
L
L
O
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-30
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-34
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
O
10/18
-11
L
L
O
10/25
3
W
W
O
11/08
-5
L
W
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/19
6
W
W
U