LACChargers
4-7
38
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
67°F
6 mph
14
JAXJaguars
3-8
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
67°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
10
14
7
7
38
Jaguars
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
306
Total Plays
54
66
Yards / Play
8.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.39
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
177
Comp/Att
22/28(79%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.03
Rushing Yards
139
129
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.46
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-4.29
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-6.15
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-119
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.1
Market Regression
+1.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.1
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
10
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
9
Rushing Yards / Game
16
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
4
13
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
25
15
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
20
19
RZ Efficiency
10
24
Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
25
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
25
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
17
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-9
O/U