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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ jets week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-1
21
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
0
27
NYJJets
3-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
1
14
0
0
15
Jets
3
7
7
10
27

Spread

NYJ logo
+1

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
268
318
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
4.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.04
Passing Yards
172
156
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.18
Rushing Yards
96
162
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.00
-12.36
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-1.63
-2.99
Penalties
13
8
Penalty Yards
95
60
Penalty EPA
-8.97
-7.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model44.6%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+69.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-2.9
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
37.8
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
12/05
-1.9
37
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
09/18
4.9
81
09/25
-4.2
23
10/02
3.8
76
10/09
-3.0
32
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
12/26
2.8
68
01/08
-4.1
24
01/16
5.5
85
01/23
3.9
75
09/11
0.4
55
09/18
0.3
54
09/25
4.0
76
10/02
-10.3
2
10/09
-0.5
48
10/17
1.8
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Chargers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14

EPA

EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
4
4
EPA / Rush
12
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
25
9
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
10
9
Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jets logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
13
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
25
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
2
RZ Efficiency
4
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-15
L
L
U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/08
1
W
W
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/23
-5
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/18
29
W
W
U
09/25
-10
L
L
O
10/02
-17
L
L
O
10/09
-9
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U