LACChargers
7-7
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
038
DETLions
9-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
10
0
10
Lions
10
14
7
1
32
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
440
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
5.2
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.28
Passing Yards
--
353
Comp/Att
28/53(53%)
29/36(81%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.12
+0.67
Rushing Yards
68
87
Rush Attempts
17
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
14
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
33%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.18
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-4.46
Penalties
1
3
Penalty Yards
--
8
Penalty EPA
--
-1.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
18.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
12
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Lions Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
7
28
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
20
15
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U