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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ packers week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-3
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
54°F
12 mph
27
GBPackers
5-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
54°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
7
3
20
Packers
14
3
7
3
27

Spread

LAC logo
+10.5

Total

UNDER
50

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
548
370
Total Plays
89
49
Yards / Play
6.2
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.31
Passing Yards
488
237
Comp/Att
43/65(66%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.16
Rushing Yards
60
133
Rush Attempts
21
17
Yards / Rush
2.9
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.44
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
32
17
Passing 1st downs
26
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-18
Sack EPA
-5.16
-5.51
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
76
50
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-5.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+226
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
11/30
8.5
93
12/07
-5.4
18
12/14
-2.4
33
12/20
3.0
71
12/28
-9.1
6
09/13
6.0
87
09/20
-0.1
50
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
5.8
86
10/12
5.2
83
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
12/14
-6.1
15
12/21
5.8
85
12/28
8.2
92
01/11
6.0
87
01/18
-2.7
31
09/13
6.6
89
09/20
5.4
84
09/28
12.3
99
10/04
1.7
63
10/11
0.0
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Packers Defense
Chargers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19

EPA

EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
31
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Packers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Packers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27

EPA

EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
8
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
10
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
16
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-9
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
O
12/28
-12
L
L
U
09/13
5
W
W
O
09/20
-5
L
L
U
09/27
-17
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/12
-4
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-8
L
L
U
12/21
17
W
W
U
12/28
10
W
W
O
01/11
5
W
L
U
01/18
-6
L
W
O
09/13
8
W
W
O
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/28
10
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
14
W
W
U