LACChargers
2-3
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
54°F
12 mph
27
GBPackers
5-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
54°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
7
3
20
Packers
14
3
7
3
27
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
548
370
Total Plays
89
49
Yards / Play
6.2
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.31
Passing Yards
488
237
Comp/Att
43/65(66%)
16/29(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.16
Rushing Yards
60
133
Rush Attempts
21
17
Yards / Rush
2.9
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.44
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
17
Passing 1st downs
26
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
9
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.73
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-15
-18
Sack EPA
-5.16
-5.51
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
76
50
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-5.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.8
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
11
Yards / Game
7
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
11
7
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
21
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Packers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
21
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
16
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
2
20
Fumbles / Game
10
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U