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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ panthers week 2, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-0
26
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
78°F
13 mph
3
CARPanthers
0-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
78°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
14
3
3
26
Panthers
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

LAC logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
349
159
Total Plays
65
46
Yards / Play
5.4
3.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.54
Passing Yards
130
69
Comp/Att
14/20(70%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
2.7
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.85
Rushing Yards
219
90
Rush Attempts
44
18
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
7
Passing 1st downs
8
3
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
56%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.99
-4.03
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
-4.55
-4.93
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
15
90
Penalty EPA
-2.22
-9.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model60.3%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,391
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+88.0
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+25.1
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
-18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
-72.9
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
10/16
1.5
59
10/22
-7.1
10
10/29
8.4
95
11/06
-7.4
10
11/12
7.8
93
11/19
6.2
87
11/26
1.9
63
12/03
-1.0
44
12/10
-10.3
3
09/08
-1.9
35
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Value
Ptile
11/09
-5.8
15
11/19
-10.4
2
11/26
-4.1
23
12/03
-10.3
3
12/10
-7.8
9
12/17
-3.8
25
12/24
3.9
75
12/31
-13.1
1
01/07
-5.1
19
09/08
-10.0
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Chargers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
32
Yards / Game
20
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
32

EPA

EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
19
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
13
20
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Panthers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Panthers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14

EPA

EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
9
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
25
RZ Efficiency
7
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-3
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-10
L
L
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/14
-42
L
L
O
12/23
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-7
L
L
U
01/07
-1
L
L
U
09/08
12
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-3
L
P
U
11/19
-23
L
L
P
11/26
-7
L
L
U
12/03
-3
L
W
O
12/10
-22
L
L
U
12/17
2
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
O
12/31
-26
L
L
U
01/07
-9
L
L
U
09/08
-37
L
L
O