LACChargers
1-0
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
12 mph
35
NEPatriots
1-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
0
14
21
Patriots
7
13
0
15
35
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
470
506
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
7.1
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.37
Passing Yards
372
410
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.60
Rushing Yards
98
96
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
28
Passing 1st downs
20
23
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
83%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.18
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-5.17
-2.86
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
44
80
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-3.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,698
Away nfelo
1,623
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
12
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20
EPA
EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
4
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
2
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U