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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ patriots week 2, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-0
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
12 mph
35
NEPatriots
1-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
63°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
0
14
21
Patriots
7
13
0
15
35

Spread

NE logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
470
506
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
7.1
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.37
Passing Yards
372
410
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
31/40(78%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.60
Rushing Yards
98
96
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
29
28
Passing 1st downs
20
23
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
83%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.18
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-5.17
-2.86
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
44
80
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-3.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,697
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/31
6.1
88
11/07
5.0
82
11/22
3.7
74
11/28
0.0
49
12/05
-1.9
37
12/12
2.2
63
12/16
7.4
92
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Value
Ptile
11/14
11.3
99
11/21
2.8
68
11/25
10.2
98
12/06
9.1
96
12/12
6.4
88
12/19
0.7
52
12/26
2.4
65
01/02
4.0
76
01/16
0.5
52
09/12
13.5
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chargers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19

EPA

EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
12
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
25
4
Fumbles / Game
12
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Patriots logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
20

EPA

EPA / Play
1
29
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
4
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
25
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
32
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
2
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
8
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/22
21
W
W
U
11/28
22
W
W
P
12/05
-15
L
L
U
12/12
31
W
W
U
12/16
27
W
W
U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
13
W
W
O
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
21
W
W
O
12/06
42
W
W
O
12/12
29
W
W
O
12/19
4
W
L
O
12/26
31
W
W
U
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/12
14
W
W
O