LACChargers
3-4
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
8 mph
21
NEPatriots
5-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
0
6
13
Patriots
0
15
3
3
21
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
414
Total Plays
53
82
Yards / Play
6.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.08
Passing Yards
192
317
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
32/47(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.19
Rushing Yards
157
97
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
7.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
10
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
30%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
19
Red Zone %
NaN%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.83
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-20
-16
Sack EPA
-2.68
-3.97
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
77
80
Penalty EPA
-8.55
-6.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+253
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+106.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
+30.4
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
214.4
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
16
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
21
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
27
7
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
3
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
32
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
6
14
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
3
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U