LACChargers
4-7
6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
8 mph
0
NEPatriots
2-9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
6
0
0
6
Patriots
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
257
Total Plays
61
62
Yards / Play
4.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.33
Passing Yards
--
109
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.63
Rushing Yards
29
148
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
1.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.57
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
13
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.96
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
--
-11.18
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
--
Penalty EPA
-2.83
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model59.4%
Spread Pick
Patriots+4.5
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-18
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+69.3
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.2
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-66.1
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
B. Zappe
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
14
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
6
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
31
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
3
23
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
23
Yards / Game
30
28
Passing Yards / Game
31
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
20
EPA / Pass
31
24
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
16
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
11
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U