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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ patriots week 19, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
11-6
3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
10 mph
16
NEPatriots
14-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
3
0
0
3
Patriots
0
6
3
7
16

Spread

NE logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
207
381
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
3.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.02
Passing Yards
120
235
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.06
Rushing Yards
87
146
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
10%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.36
-9.44
Sacks
6
5
Sack Yards
-39
-33
Sack EPA
-10.80
-12.66
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.3%
Cover Probability
58.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+202
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+20.6
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-23.9
Net QB Adjustment
+36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+32.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
151.8
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
10/19
5.4
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.3
54
11/09
-3.8
25
11/16
-8.8
4
11/30
-3.5
27
12/08
-7.6
7
12/14
-5.0
18
12/21
9.7
98
12/27
-0.9
44
D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
Value
Ptile
10/26
2.9
72
11/02
-3.9
24
11/09
-1.1
42
11/13
3.4
75
11/23
0.5
56
12/01
2.9
72
12/14
0.6
57
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
10.8
98
01/04
3.3
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Chargers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
24
2
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
26
4
EPA / Rush
13
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
23
16
Fumbles / Game
17
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Patriots Offense vs Chargers Defense
Patriots logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
6
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
8
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
22
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
2
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
21
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
22
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O
12/08
3
W
W
U
12/14
3
W
W
U
12/21
17
W
W
O
12/27
-4
L
L
U
01/04
-16
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
19
W
W
O
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
5
W
W
O
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
6
W
L
U
12/01
18
W
W
O
12/14
-4
L
L
O
12/21
4
W
W
O
12/28
32
W
W
O
01/04
28
W
W
O