nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 1, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

LAC logo
LACChargers
-
22
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
11 mph
14
OAKRaiders
-
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
6
6
22
Raiders
3
3
0
8
14

Spread

LAC logo
+1

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
258
323
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.8
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.09
Passing Yards
226
278
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
32/47(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.02
Rushing Yards
32
45
Rush Attempts
20
20
Yards / Rush
1.6
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.62
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.38
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-21
Sack EPA
-1.80
-3.49
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
78
35
Penalty EPA
-11.36
-3.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
+8.2
Final Difference
8.2
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
10/31
-1.7
38
11/06
2.8
72
11/10
-5.5
16
11/20
2.6
70
11/27
-3.7
27
12/05
9.9
97
12/11
5.1
82
12/18
7.1
91
12/24
-1.5
40
01/01
6.4
88
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
01/02
3.8
75
11/06
-2.4
34
11/10
2.8
71
11/20
-1.2
43
11/27
-4.0
24
12/04
-1.1
44
12/11
-5.6
15
12/18
7.0
90
12/24
-0.7
47
01/01
8.0
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17

EPA

EPA / Play
19
32
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
28
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
31
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
16
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
28
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-3
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-11
L
L
O
11/27
-3
L
L
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
U
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-28
L
L
U
01/01
12
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-28
L
L
U
11/06
-14
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/27
5
W
W
O
12/04
-20
L
L
O
12/11
-30
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-12
L
L
O