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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-2
27
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
0
35
OAKRaiders
1-3
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
67°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
17
7
3
27
Raiders
4
3
7
7
21

Spread

OAK logo
+7

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
506
279
Total Plays
71
59
Yards / Play
7.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.10
Passing Yards
415
168
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.04
Rushing Yards
91
111
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
29
14
Passing 1st downs
19
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-19.16
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-5
Sack EPA
-14.71
-2.69
Penalties
7
12
Penalty Yards
53
85
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-10.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-194
Home nfelo
1,365
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-53.3
Home QB Adjustment
-42.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
-27.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
12/06
7.4
91
12/13
1.7
61
12/20
3.3
72
12/25
5.8
85
01/03
-1.0
44
01/17
4.1
77
09/13
2.9
69
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
0.3
51
10/03
4.8
81
B. Gradkowski headshot

B. Gradkowski

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-42.0
Value
Ptile
12/03
-9.3
4
12/10
-2.4
34
12/17
-4.6
20
12/28
-11.6
2
11/22
-0.4
47
11/26
-0.5
46
12/06
6.9
88
12/13
-2.4
35
09/26
-3.1
29
10/03
-2.5
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29

EPA

EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
20
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
4

EPA

EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
18
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
7
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
25
W
W
O
01/03
3
W
P
O
01/17
-3
L
L
U
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/19
25
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/03
31
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
O
09/19
2
W
L
U
09/26
-1
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
L
O