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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 5, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-2
17
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
2 mph
27
OAKRaiders
1-3
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
3
14
17
Raiders
14
3
1
3
21

Spread

OAK logo
+6

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
427
299
Total Plays
69
55
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.19
Passing Yards
391
195
Comp/Att
35/48(73%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.25
Rushing Yards
36
104
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.72
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
21
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.28
+4.33
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-20
-26
Sack EPA
-3.44
-6.95
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
30
85
Penalty EPA
-3.41
-2.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,381
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
-113.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
Value
Ptile
11/25
-3.0
30
12/02
-3.5
27
12/09
2.9
68
12/16
-6.9
10
12/23
-2.7
32
12/30
-0.7
45
09/09
1.7
62
09/15
12.6
98
09/22
1.8
63
09/29
10.9
96
T. Pryor headshot

T. Pryor

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
12/30
2.6
66
09/08
4.6
82
09/15
-2.9
32
09/23
4.3
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11

EPA

EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
10
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
16
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
5
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-3
L
L
U
12/02
-7
L
L
U
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
O
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
P
U
09/29
9
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/16
15
W
W
U
12/23
-11
L
L
U
12/30
-3
L
W
O
09/08
-4
L
W
U
09/15
10
W
W
U
09/23
-16
L
P
O
09/29
-10
L
L
U