LACChargers
1-3
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
75°F
7 mph
34
OAKRaiders
3-1
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
75°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
10
14
7
31
Raiders
3
6
18
7
34
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
391
Total Plays
51
69
Yards / Play
8.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.05
Passing Yards
351
302
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
11.7
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.15
Rushing Yards
72
89
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.40
-5.74
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-2.43
-3.31
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
38
36
Penalty EPA
-4.07
-5.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
20
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U