LACChargers
4-5
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
9 mph
26
OAKRaiders
4-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
3
7
24
Raiders
4
7
3
6
20
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
278
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
4.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.09
Passing Yards
169
200
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.15
Rushing Yards
146
78
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
18
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
30%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.61
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-38
-18
Sack EPA
-9.30
-4.97
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
70
97
Penalty EPA
-8.44
-11.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+27.4
Base HFA
+50.0
Divisional Adj
-22.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
24
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
3
16
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
11
31
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
25
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
27
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
32
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
13
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
13
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
22
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
18
30
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
22
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U