LACChargers
6-5
20
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
027
OAKRaiders
4-7
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
1
6
0
7
14
Raiders
0
10
14
3
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
404
Total Plays
74
59
Yards / Play
5.2
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.11
Passing Yards
314
--
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.26
Rushing Yards
72
154
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.40
-12.85
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-7.31
--
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
15
Penalty EPA
-2.43
-0.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+36.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+45.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
26
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
5
5
Rushing Yards / Game
30
19
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
6
31
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
20
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
23
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
13
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
16
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
1
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
26
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U