LACChargers
4-10
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
47°F
25 mph
23
OAKRaiders
6-8
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
47°F
25 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
7
10
0
3
0
20
Raiders
7
3
0
8
3
21
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
283
Total Plays
75
66
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.11
Passing Yards
271
177
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.10
Rushing Yards
72
106
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.07
-5.70
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-29
Sack EPA
+0.14
-4.84
Penalties
9
16
Penalty Yards
75
121
Penalty EPA
-11.16
-12.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
-26.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
19
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U