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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ raiders week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
7-8
38
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
56°F
8 mph
26
OAKRaiders
8-7
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
56°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
17
7
7
38
Raiders
7
6
6
7
26

Spread

LAC logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
463
520
Total Plays
57
67
Yards / Play
8.1
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.58
+0.28
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+1.00
+0.36
Rushing Yards
153
103
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
70%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.86
-3.61
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
68
64
Penalty EPA
-8.37
-8.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.6
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
1.8
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.9
25
10/31
-1.7
38
11/06
2.8
72
11/10
-5.5
16
11/20
2.6
70
11/27
-3.7
27
12/05
9.9
97
12/11
5.1
82
12/18
7.1
91
12/24
-1.5
40
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
12/26
10.8
98
01/02
3.8
75
11/06
-2.4
34
11/10
2.8
71
11/20
-1.2
43
11/27
-4.0
24
12/04
-1.1
44
12/11
-5.6
15
12/18
7.0
90
12/24
-0.7
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
12
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20

EPA

EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
8
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
23
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-6
L
L
O
10/31
-3
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
O
11/10
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-11
L
L
O
11/27
-3
L
L
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
U
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-28
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/23
-28
L
L
U
11/06
-14
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
U
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/27
5
W
W
O
12/04
-20
L
L
O
12/11
-30
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
P
O
12/24
3
W
W
U