LACChargers
2-5
26
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
10 mph
29
BALRavens
1-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
63°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
13
7
3
26
Ravens
6
7
6
10
29
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
371
365
Total Plays
64
65
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.27
Passing Yards
290
293
Comp/Att
28/37(76%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.45
+0.29
Rushing Yards
81
72
Rush Attempts
26
25
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-26
Sack EPA
-2.61
-5.70
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
66
46
Penalty EPA
-7.07
-6.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+117.2
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
+33.4
Net QB Adjustment
-22.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
+12.7
Final Difference
123.2
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
7
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
11
24
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
16
32
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
20
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
21
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
23
19
EPA / Rush
26
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
13
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
3
15
Turnover EPA / Game
8
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U