LACChargers
7-4
34
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
8 mph
33
BALRavens
7-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
3
21
34
Ravens
10
6
7
10
33
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
440
350
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
6.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.33
Passing Yards
376
--
Comp/Att
34/45(76%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.32
Rushing Yards
64
125
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
24
Passing 1st downs
20
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
6
5
3rd Down %
82%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.39
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-2.04
--
Penalties
8
14
Penalty Yards
91
98
Penalty EPA
-11.05
-11.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
7
Yards / Game
19
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
3
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
26
21
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Ravens Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
13
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
7
6
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U