LACChargers
3-1
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
0-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
10
7
0
24
Saints
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
404
Total Plays
65
69
Yards / Play
6.6
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.15
Passing Yards
310
351
Comp/Att
27/42(64%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.32
Rushing Yards
117
53
Rush Attempts
18
21
Yards / Rush
6.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
18
19
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.21
-4.66
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-44
-19
Sack EPA
-9.24
-3.94
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
56
99
Penalty EPA
-5.68
-13.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+61.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.9
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
31
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
28
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
20
29
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
26
22
Saints Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
12
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
28
18
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
14
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
3
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U