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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ seahawks week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-1
20
TBD
Lumen Field
68°F
10 mph
27
SEASeahawks
1-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
68°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
10
8
18
Seahawks
0
10
7
10
27

Spread

SEA logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
520
271
Total Plays
79
56
Yards / Play
6.6
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.01
Passing Yards
431
203
Comp/Att
29/54(54%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.14
Rushing Yards
89
68
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.39
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
27
13
Passing 1st downs
22
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-20.01
-6.06
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-26
-17
Sack EPA
-6.17
-3.69
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
83
32
Penalty EPA
-9.47
-0.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-5
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
-50.4
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Value
Ptile
11/22
2.7
67
11/29
7.6
91
12/06
7.4
91
12/13
1.7
61
12/20
3.3
72
12/25
5.8
85
01/03
-1.0
44
01/17
4.1
77
09/13
2.9
69
09/19
5.1
83
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
11/15
-5.2
19
11/22
0.2
51
11/29
-3.2
30
12/06
2.0
64
12/13
-0.9
44
12/20
-4.8
21
12/27
-9.2
4
01/03
-5.8
15
09/12
4.5
80
09/19
-0.8
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Chargers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
2
27
Yards / Game
1
30
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
20
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Seahawks Offense vs Chargers Defense
Seahawks logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
9
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
24
2
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
20
14
Fumbles / Game
12
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
26
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
29
W
W
U
11/29
29
W
W
O
12/06
7
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
25
W
W
O
01/03
3
W
P
O
01/17
-3
L
L
U
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/19
25
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-11
L
L
O
11/22
-26
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
-27
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-38
L
L
O
01/03
-4
L
W
U
09/12
25
W
W
P
09/19
-17
L
L
O