LACChargers
2-0
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
2 mph
20
PITSteelers
2-0
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
0
7
3
10
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
166
346
Total Plays
45
65
Yards / Play
3.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.06
Passing Yards
105
232
Comp/Att
14/20(70%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.26
Rushing Yards
61
114
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.98
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-44
-13
Sack EPA
-8.08
-2.82
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
69
15
Penalty EPA
-11.31
-2.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+88.4
Base HFA
+46.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.4
Time Adj
+25.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-3.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
19
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U