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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ steelers week 3, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-0
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
2 mph
20
PITSteelers
2-0
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
72°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
0
7
3
10
20

Spread

PIT logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
36

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
166
346
Total Plays
45
65
Yards / Play
3.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.06
Passing Yards
105
232
Comp/Att
14/20(70%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.26
Rushing Yards
61
114
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.98
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-44
-13
Sack EPA
-8.08
-2.82
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
69
15
Penalty EPA
-11.31
-2.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+88.3
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+25.1
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-2.2
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
10/22
-7.1
10
10/29
8.4
95
11/06
-7.4
10
11/12
7.8
93
11/19
6.2
87
11/26
1.9
63
12/03
-1.0
44
12/10
-10.3
3
09/08
-1.9
35
09/15
-1.0
41
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/15
-8.7
6
11/19
3.3
72
11/27
1.1
56
12/10
1.7
60
12/17
-5.8
15
12/24
3.7
74
12/31
3.1
71
01/07
-6.3
13
09/08
-1.1
41
09/15
-2.7
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chargers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
7
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
20
11

EPA

EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
14
16
EPA / Rush
19
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
8
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Steelers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
2
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14

EPA

EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
28
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
31
13
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
4
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
29
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-10
L
L
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/14
-42
L
L
O
12/23
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-7
L
L
U
01/07
-1
L
L
U
09/08
12
W
W
U
09/15
23
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
-14
L
L
U
12/07
-3
L
L
O
12/16
-17
L
L
O
12/23
23
W
W
O
12/31
7
W
W
O
01/06
7
W
W
U
01/15
-14
L
L
O
09/08
8
W
W
U
09/15
7
W
W
U