LACChargers
2-1
28
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
54°F
4 mph
38
PITSteelers
1-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
54°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
0
7
21
28
Steelers
14
7
7
10
38
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
497
Total Plays
47
73
Yards / Play
5.3
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.44
+0.40
Passing Yards
235
320
Comp/Att
21/36(58%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.65
Rushing Yards
16
177
Rush Attempts
8
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
32
Passing 1st downs
15
19
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
+7.76
-2.54
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-19
-19
Sack EPA
-4.45
-3.48
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
59
Penalty EPA
-3.36
-5.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+9.7
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.7
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
1
13
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
2
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
10
6
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
7
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
10
19
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
10
20
Fumbles / Game
19
14
Turnover EPA / Game
13
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
4
20
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U