LACChargers
8-3
33
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
8 mph
30
PITSteelers
7-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
0
8
12
27
Steelers
13
10
0
7
30
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
336
Total Plays
62
63
Yards / Play
6.0
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.09
Passing Yards
290
271
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.13
Rushing Yards
85
65
Rush Attempts
22
17
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
17
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
55%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.16
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-2.75
-1.53
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
80
59
Penalty EPA
-3.47
-5.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+26.5
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-30.7
Net QB Adjustment
+8.3
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
+95.7
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
13
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
7
20
EPA / Pass
3
18
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
7
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
11
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
10
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
4
8
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
25
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
18
7
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
23
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U