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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ steelers week 14, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-8
34
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
10 mph
24
PITSteelers
7-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
10
8
7
28
Steelers
0
3
7
14
24

Spread

LAC logo
+7

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
294
340
Total Plays
79
61
Yards / Play
3.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.12
Passing Yards
200
271
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
22/42(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
94
69
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
12
5
3rd Down Attempts
22
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.64
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
-0.42
-2.20
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
51
52
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-6.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+41.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
190.2
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
Value
Ptile
09/23
-6.4
11
09/30
-0.4
47
10/07
-0.7
44
10/15
-7.9
6
10/28
-3.9
25
11/01
2.9
69
11/11
4.5
79
11/18
-3.1
29
11/25
-3.0
30
12/02
-3.5
27
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Value
Ptile
01/08
-3.7
28
09/09
-4.4
22
09/16
5.1
81
09/23
13.0
99
10/07
3.0
70
10/11
2.7
67
10/21
0.6
54
10/28
6.4
88
11/04
-2.0
35
11/12
-2.8
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chargers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2

EPA

EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
20
7
EPA / Rush
28
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Steelers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5

EPA

EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
29
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
12
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-24
L
L
U
09/30
17
W
W
O
10/07
-7
L
L
O
10/15
-11
L
L
O
10/28
-1
L
L
U
11/01
18
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
W
O
11/25
-3
L
L
U
12/02
-7
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-3
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
W
U
10/28
15
W
W
U
11/04
4
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/18
-3
L
P
U
11/25
-6
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
O