LACChargers
4-8
34
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
10 mph
24
PITSteelers
7-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
45°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
10
8
7
28
Steelers
0
3
7
14
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
340
Total Plays
79
61
Yards / Play
3.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.12
Passing Yards
200
271
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
22/42(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.12
Rushing Yards
94
69
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.60
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
12
5
3rd Down Attempts
22
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.64
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
-0.42
-2.20
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
51
52
Penalty EPA
-4.69
-6.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
Steelers-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+41.1
Home QB Adjustment
+22.5
Away QB Adjustment
-18.6
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
180.8
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.6
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
28
2
EPA
EPA / Play
19
7
EPA / Pass
20
7
EPA / Rush
28
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
14
27
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Steelers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
21
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
29
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U