LACChargers
3-5
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
4-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
14
0
7
8
29
Texans
10
10
3
0
23
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
392
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
7.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.04
Passing Yards
290
252
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
12.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.87
+0.08
Rushing Yards
79
140
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.94
-3.21
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.25
-3.34
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
62
31
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-3.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model52.5%
Spread Pick
Texans+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-17.4
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
1
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
20
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
9
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
4
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U