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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ texans week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-5
29
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
4-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
14
0
7
8
29
Texans
10
10
3
0
23

Spread

LAC logo
-3

Total

OVER
50

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
369
392
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
7.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.04
Passing Yards
290
252
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
12.6
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.87
+0.08
Rushing Yards
79
140
Rush Attempts
27
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
44%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.94
-3.21
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.25
-3.34
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
62
31
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-3.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-17.1
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
-16.5
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Value
Ptile
01/03
-1.0
44
01/17
4.1
77
09/13
2.9
69
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
0.3
51
10/03
4.8
81
10/10
8.5
94
10/17
-6.3
12
10/24
2.8
67
10/31
6.1
88
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95
09/26
-3.1
28
10/03
2.6
66
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
6.8
90
11/01
-3.9
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Chargers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
1
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
20
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
12
31
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Texans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
9
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
4
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
11
RZ Efficiency
5
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
3
W
P
O
01/17
-3
L
L
U
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/19
25
W
W
O
09/26
-7
L
L
O
10/03
31
W
W
O
10/10
-8
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
U
10/31
8
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
U
10/17
4
W
L
O
11/01
-13
L
L
U