LACChargers
4-6
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
013
HOUTexans
6-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
0
7
21
Texans
0
7
0
6
13
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
353
Total Plays
49
65
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.17
Passing Yards
235
239
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.06
Rushing Yards
67
114
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.97
-12.96
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-2.00
-0.49
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
78
58
Penalty EPA
-2.50
-5.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+53.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
-19.6
Final Difference
-4.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
27
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U