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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ texans week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-6
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
13
HOUTexans
6-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
14
0
7
21
Texans
0
7
0
6
13

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
302
353
Total Plays
49
65
Yards / Play
6.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.17
Passing Yards
235
239
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.06
Rushing Yards
67
114
Rush Attempts
18
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.97
-12.96
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-7
Sack EPA
-2.00
-0.49
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
78
58
Penalty EPA
-2.50
-5.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.1
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+20.7
Net QB Adjustment
+8.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.5
Market Regression
-20.2
Final Difference
-4.9
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
09/11
3.9
77
09/18
3.6
75
09/25
1.7
62
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
10/30
-8.5
4
11/06
4.0
78
11/13
-5.3
14
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
-0.5
45
09/18
-3.5
23
09/22
-4.6
16
10/02
1.0
56
10/09
-8.0
5
10/16
0.5
53
10/24
-2.8
28
10/30
-5.8
13
11/13
-2.0
34
11/21
-0.1
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Chargers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
27
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
31
13
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Texans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
28
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
12

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
26
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
14
Interceptions / Game
25
1
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
17
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
31
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-6
L
W
O
09/18
24
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
8
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
10/02
7
W
W
O
10/09
-18
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/24
-18
L
L
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/21
-7
L
L
O