LACChargers
1-1
14
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
75°F
12 mph
31
MINVikings
1-1
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
75°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
0
7
14
Vikings
3
7
14
1
25
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
284
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.09
Passing Yards
279
--
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.19
Rushing Yards
90
163
Rush Attempts
28
31
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.15
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-14.73
-4.46
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-10.14
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
74
--
Penalty EPA
-9.40
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.1
Market Regression
-20.7
Final Difference
44.7
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
7
9
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
31
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
21
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
10
RZ Efficiency
7
5
Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
29
21
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
24
19
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
4
20
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U