KCChiefs
2-2
17
TBD
Levi's Stadium
85°F
1 mph
22
SF49ers
2-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
85°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
7
3
7
0
17
49ers
3
10
3
6
22
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
357
Total Plays
50
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
186
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.09
Rushing Yards
107
171
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
5.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.42
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-4.16
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
29
10
Penalty EPA
-3.75
-1.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+164
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.7
Market Regression
+2.3
Final Difference
134.4
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chiefs Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
10
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
3
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
21
19
RZ Efficiency
9
28
49ers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
2
Yards / Game
21
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
28
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
20
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
19
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U